Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump vetoes any bill or joint resolution between market creation and February 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A veto means the President returns a bill or joint resolution to Congress without signature, with objections, as provided in Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution, or a pocket veto. A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred on the date the bill or joint resolution is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto does not take effect until after February 1, 2027. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known. Veto threats, Statements of Administration Policy, and signing statements will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government, including Congress.gov and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.