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Home / Markets / Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amaz
Resolved market scorecard

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas: result and scorecard

Resolved Lula. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 65.5%; a week before, 61.0%. $181K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Lula
resolved October 26, 2026

Price 1 day before

65.5%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

61.0%
30 days before: –

Volume

$181K
8 outcomes

BrazilPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
LulaWON$97K
Flavio BolsonaroLOST$84K
Candidate ALOST$0
Candidate BLOST$0
Candidate CLOST$0
Candidate DLOST$0
Candidate ELOST$0
OtherLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-1510-25
LulaFlavio Bolsonaro
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 66% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Amazonas. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Frequently asked questions

How did "Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas" resolve?
It resolved Lula around October 26, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 65.5% one day before close, 61.0% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$181K across 8 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.