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Home / Markets / Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil by...?
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Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is December 31, 2027 at 30.0%, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 19.5%. $30K traded across 5 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

30.0%
December 31, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

-5.0
pts · 7d -2.0

Volume

$30K
24h $2K · liquidity $46K

Closes

April 1, 2027
146 days left

WorldBrazilPoliticsBolsonaro

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
December 31, 202730.0% -5.0-2.0$57618.0¢
June 30, 202719.5% 0.0+3.5$1K1.0¢
March 31, 202711.5% +0.5-2.5$4K1.0¢
December 31, 20264.0% -2.0-1.5$12K2.0¢
November 30, 20261.5% -0.3-0.8$12K1.9¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-2811-0111-06
December 31, 2027June 30, 2027March 31, 2027December 31, 2026

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying December 31, 2027 at 30% risks 30¢ to win 70¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, December 31, 2027 is the favorite at 30.0%, followed by June 30, 2027 at 19.5%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on April 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$30K in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $46K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.