Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by...?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

In March 2026, Brazil imposed a 12% export tax on crude oil through Provisional Measure (MP) 1.340/2026. The tax has since been extended by resolutions of the Foreign Trade Chamber (Gecex-Camex), and oil producers are challenging it in court. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) or Superior Court of Justice (STJ) issues a qualifying ruling on the merits that the Crude Oil Export Tax, or its collection, is unconstitutional or otherwise unlawful, in whole or in part, unless the ruling leaves no taxpayer able to recover any amount paid under the tax by the specified date, 11:59 PM Brasília time (BRT). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “Crude Oil Export Tax” is the federal export tax (Imposto de Exportação) on crude petroleum oils (NCM 2709) imposed by MP 1.340/2026 and continued by Gecex Resolution No. 938/2026 and subsequent Gecex-Camex resolutions, including any act that extends, renews, or modifies it. Changes to the tax’s rate will not affect this market; a ruling concerning the tax at any rate, for any part of the period during which it was collected, will qualify. Only the following rulings will qualify: (i) at the STF, a decision of the full court (Plenário) in a direct constitutional action (ADI, ADC, or ADPF) or in an extraordinary appeal (recurso extraordinário) decided under general repercussion (repercussão geral); and (ii) at the STJ, a decision of the competent section (Seção) or the Special Court (Corte Especial) in a special appeal (recurso especial) decided under the repetitive appeals procedure (recursos repetitivos) or in an assumption-of-jurisdiction incident (incidente de assunção de competência). The ruling must, by its own terms, apply to the Crude Oil Export Tax or the acts imposing or extending it. No separate act by the Receita Federal, the Procuradoria-Geral da Fazenda Nacional, or any other body accepting or implementing the ruling is required. A ruling finding the tax unlawful for only part of the period during which it was collected (e.g., only the period after the Gecex-Camex extensions) will qualify. A ruling that is silent on refunds, or that limits refunds to certain periods or taxpayers, will qualify. A ruling that modulates its effects so that no taxpayer may recover any amount paid under the tax will not qualify. Preliminary or interim decisions (including injunctions and decisions by individual justices not confirmed by the full court or the relevant section), decis