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Resolved market scorecard

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner: result and scorecard

Resolved Flavio Bolsonaro. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 38.5%; a week before, 25.5%. $6.1M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Flavio Bolsonaro
resolved October 5, 2026

Price 1 day before

38.5%
Market leaned the wrong way

Price 7 days before

25.5%
30 days before: 9.5%

Volume

$6.1M
40 outcomes

BrazilPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Flavio BolsonaroWON$2.6M
LulaLOST$3.4M
Hertz DiasLOST$13K
Veterinário Wilson GrassiLOST$10K
SamaraLOST$10K
Edmilson CostaLOST$10K
Renan SantosLOST$9K
Escritor Augusto CuryLOST$8K
Rui Costa PimentaLOST$5K
Ronaldo CaiadoLOST$5K
ZemaLOST$2K
Pablo MarçalLOST$1K
Clariana BaraoLOST$295
Candidate ALOST$0
Candidate BLOST$0
Candidate CLOST$0
Candidate DLOST$0
Candidate ELOST$0
Candidate FLOST$0
Candidate GLOST$0
Candidate HLOST$0
Candidate ILOST$0
Candidate JLOST$0
Candidate KLOST$0
Candidate LLOST$0
Candidate MLOST$0
Candidate NLOST$0
Candidate OLOST$0
Candidate PLOST$0
Candidate QLOST$0
Candidate RLOST$0
Candidate SLOST$0
Candidate TLOST$0
Candidate ULOST$0
Candidate VLOST$0
Candidate WLOST$0
Candidate XLOST$0
Candidate YLOST$0
Candidate ZLOST$0
OtherLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%09-0109-1810-05
Flavio BolsonaroLulaHertz DiasVeterinário Wilson Grassi
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 39% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Frequently asked questions

How did "Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" resolve?
It resolved Flavio Bolsonaro around October 5, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 38.5% one day before close, 25.5% one week before and 9.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$6.1M across 40 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.