Brazil declares emergency rule in Brasília by January 31, 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

Brazil held its presidential runoff on October 25, 2026. After the previous election, President Lula decreed a federal intervention in the Federal District's public security following the January 8, 2023 attacks in Brasília. (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8_January_Bras%C3%ADlia_attacks) This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree establishing a federal intervention (intervenção federal), a state of defense (estado de defesa), or a state of siege (estado de sítio) covering all or part of Brazil's Federal District (Distrito Federal) enters into effect between market creation and January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute one of the following measures under the Constitution of the Federative Republic of Brazil: a federal intervention in the Federal District decreed by the President under Article 34, including an intervention limited to a specific area such as public security; a state of defense under Article 136; or a state of siege under Article 137. A state of defense or state of siege will qualify only if its scope includes all or part of the Federal District. A qualifying decree will count once it enters into effect, regardless of whether it is subsequently rejected, suspended, or revoked by the National Congress or the courts. Decrees authorizing the use of the Armed Forces for the Guarantee of Law and Order (Garantia da Lei e da Ordem, GLO), deployments of the National Public Security Force (Força Nacional de Segurança Pública), civil-defense declarations of an emergency situation (situação de emergência) or state of public calamity (estado de calamidade pública), measures issued by the Federal District government itself, and announcements or proposals that do not result in a decree in effect will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Diário Oficial da União (in.gov.br); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.