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3rd richest person on December 31?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is Bernard Arnault at 45.6%, ahead of Michael Dell at 44.0%. $29K traded across 11 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

45.6%
Bernard Arnault · Trade →

24h move

+0.4
pts · 7d +2.5

Volume

$29K
24h $5 · liquidity $8K

Closes

January 3, 2027
58 days left

Elon MuskBig TechCultureBusiness

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Bernard Arnault45.6% +0.4+2.5$34687.6¢
Michael Dell44.0% +0.4-1.2$49386.4¢
Warren Buffett41.1% +5.6-0.5$2K80.0¢
Jensen Huang37.8% +12.8-3.8$1K73.7¢
Steve Ballmer30.8% +1.3+0.7$14K60.6¢
Larry Page29.0% -9.8+1.7$7K51.6¢
Jeff Bezos25.3% -0.4-16.7$66049.7¢
Mark Zuckerberg14.0% -23.8-2.5$1K25.9¢
Larry Ellison10.8% -14.7+9.6$92421.3¢
Sergey Brin9.5% 0.00.0$68313.0¢
Elon Musk1.1% -38.3-39.9$6281.4¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%01-3106-1911-06
Bernard ArnaultMichael DellWarren BuffettJensen Huang

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Bernard Arnault at 46% risks 46¢ to win 54¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "3rd richest person on December 31?"?
As of November 6, 2026, Bernard Arnault is the favorite at 45.6%, followed by Michael Dell at 44.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 3, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$29K in total and $5 in the last 24 hours, with about $8K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.