How did "Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?" resolve?

It resolved No around December 31, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.4% one day before close, 99.1% one week before and 97.8% one month before.

Home / Markets / Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?

Resolved market scorecard

Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?: result and scorecard

Name: Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.4%; a week before, 99.1%. $1.9M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved January 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.4%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.1%

30 days before: 97.8%

Volume

$1.9M

1 outcome

Tariffs Politics Trump Trade War MAGA

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$1.9M
No	WON	$1.9M

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?" resolve?: It resolved No around December 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.4% one day before close, 99.1% one week before and 97.8% one month before.
How much was traded?: $1.9M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.