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Live market data

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is Canada at 11.0%, ahead of Israel at 11.0%. $414K traded across 17 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

11.0%
Canada · Trade →

24h move

-1.5
pts · 7d +1.5

Volume

$414K
24h $4K · liquidity $143K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

TariffsTrade WarPoliticsGeopoliticsTrump

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Canada11.0% -1.5+1.5$25K2.0¢
Israel11.0% 0.00.0$94310.0¢
Mexico9.5% -0.5-5.0$4K5.0¢
United Kingdom9.5% 0.00.0$6575.0¢
Vietnam8.8% -0.3-4.5$13K9.7¢
Pakistan8.5% 0.0-1.0$106K5.0¢
Russia8.5% +0.5-2.0$3K7.0¢
Indonesia8.0% -3.5-7.5$20K4.0¢
South Africa7.5% -1.5+1.0$9367.0¢
Australia7.0% -1.5-3.0$7K8.0¢
Japan6.9% -1.4-1.2$18K8.8¢
India6.5% -5.5-5.0$78K1.0¢
Brazil6.2% +0.1+0.3$5K6.0¢
Argentina6.0% -2.0-3.0$23K4.0¢
European Union5.8% +0.6-0.9$14K4.0¢
South Korea5.3% -6.8-13.2$62K2.9¢
Taiwan5.0% +0.1-2.6$35K5.3¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%11-0605-0711-06
CanadaIsraelMexicoUnited Kingdom

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Canada at 11% risks 11¢ to win 89¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?"?
As of November 6, 2026, Canada is the favorite at 11.0%, followed by Israel at 11.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$414K in total and $4K in the last 24 hours, with about $143K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.