US Trade Deficit in 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 800–900B at 35.5%, ahead of 900B–1T at 32.5%. $26K traded across 8 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
EconomyTrumpTariffsTrade Wardeficit
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 800–900B | 35.5% | -0.5 |
| 900B–1T | 32.5% | -1.0 |
| 700–800B | 12.5% | -5.0 |
| 600–700B | 5.1% | -5.1 |
| 500–600B | 5.1% | +0.1 |
| 1T–1.1T | 4.9% | 0.0 |
| 1.1T+ | 4.3% | +0.1 |
| <500B | 2.1% | -0.1 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "US Trade Deficit in 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 800–900B is the favorite at 35.5%, followed by 900B–1T at 32.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on May 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $26K in total and $92 in the last 24 hours, with about $11K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.