U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 5–15% at 89.5%, ahead of 15–25% at 8.0%. $14K traded across 5 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
ChinaIEEPATrumpTariffsPolitics
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 5–15% | 89.5% | 0.0 |
| 15–25% | 8.0% | +0.5 |
| <5% | 2.0% | +0.2 |
| 25–35% | 1.6% | +0.1 |
| 35%+ | 1.5% | -0.1 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 5–15% is the favorite at 89.5%, followed by 15–25% at 8.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $14K in total and $7 in the last 24 hours, with about $32K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.