Trump announces Canada tariff decrease by...?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the White House, or any Cabinet member publicly and officially announces a tariff decrease on Canada between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any tariff decrease which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the change goes into effect. The announced replacement of an existing tariff on Canada with a tariff of a lower rate will qualify, but the replacement of an existing tariff with a tariff of an equal or higher rate will not qualify. The announced removal of a relevant existing tariff will also qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by Donald Trump, through an official White House publication or communication, or by a White House official authorized to speak on behalf of Donald Trump or the White House, including members of the Cabinet. A global/blanket tariff on all imports which does not specifically name Canada will not qualify. Announcements, notices, publications, or actions issued solely by federal departments or agencies, including U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the Department of Commerce, the Office of the United States Trade Representative, or the U.S. International Trade Commission, do not qualify on their own, unless they are announced by members of the Presidential Cabinet. This includes updates or amendments to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule, customs rulings, implementation guidance, changes to product coverage or exclusions, and antidumping or countervailing duty determinations. Such agency-level actions do not qualify merely because they implement or exercise authority delegated by Donald Trump or the White House. The relevant tariff change must itself be the subject of a qualifying announcement by Donald Trump or the White House within the market's time frame. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a tariff decrease against Canada. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a relevant tariff decrease. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a change in tariffs, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels. Statements made incidentally or informally in a con

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the White House publicly and officially announces a tariff decrease on Canada between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff decrease which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the change goes into effect. The announced replacement of an existing tariff on Canada with a tariff of a lower rate will qualify, but the replacement of an existing tariff with a tariff of an equal or higher rate will not qualify. The announced removal of a relevant existing tariff will also qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by Donald Trump acting in his official capacity, through an official White House publication or communication, or by a White House official authorized to speak on behalf of Donald Trump or the White House. Announcements, notices, publications, or actions issued solely by federal departments or agencies, including U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the Department of Commerce, the Office of the United States Trade Representative, or the U.S. International Trade Commission, do not qualify on t