What are the odds that Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 3.0% and No at 97.0%, on $6K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$6K in total and $1K in the last 24 hours, with about $13K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

Live market data

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 3.0% (-2.5 pts in 24h). $6K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

3.0%

No 97.0% · Trade →

24h move

-2.5

pts · 7d -17.0

Volume

$6K

24h $1K · liquidity $13K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Trump Tariffs Politics

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	3.0%	-2.5	-17.0	$6K	3.2¢
No	97.0%	+2.5	+17.0	$6K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 3% risks 3¢ to win 97¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 3.0% and No at 97.0%, on $6K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $6K in total and $1K in the last 24 hours, with about $13K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.