How did "US government shutdown Saturday?" resolve?

It resolved Yes around January 31, 2026.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 72.5% one week before and 21.5% one month before.

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Resolved market scorecard

US government shutdown Saturday?: result and scorecard

Name: US government shutdown Saturday? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.8%; a week before, 72.5%. $157.3M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes

resolved February 4, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.8%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

72.5%

30 days before: 21.5%

Volume

$157.3M

1 outcome

Parent For Derivative Gov Shutdown Politics Congress

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	WON	$157.3M
No	LOST	$157.3M

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

Frequently asked questions

How did "US government shutdown Saturday?" resolve?: It resolved Yes around January 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 72.5% one week before and 21.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $157.3M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.