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Home / Markets / Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs by...?
Resolved market scorecard

Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs by...?: result and scorecard

Resolved February 20. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 5.5%; a week before, 25.5%. $831K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

February 20
resolved February 20, 2026

Price 1 day before

5.5%
Market was confident and wrong

Price 7 days before

25.5%
30 days before: 66.0%

Volume

$831K
5 outcomes

TariffsTrade WarPoliticsCourtsSCOTUS

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
February 20WON$141K
February 25WON$47K
March 31WON$16K
January 31LOST$560K
January 14LOST$67K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%01-1101-3102-20
February 20February 25March 31January 31
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 6% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court issues an official ruling in the case Donald J. Trump, et al., v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc. by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official ruling on the case is defined as any decision on the merits of the case issued by the Supreme Court, including but not limited to a written opinion, summary disposition, or per curiam opinion. If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed for mootness, vacated and remanded without a decision on the merits, withdrawn or settled, otherwise concluded without a final merits judgment, or there has been no qualifying ruling for this case by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs by...?" resolve?
It resolved February 20 around February 20, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 5.5% one day before close, 25.5% one week before and 66.0% one month before.
How much was traded?
$831K across 5 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.