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Home / Markets / Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?
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Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is December 31, 2026 at 10.7%. $563K traded across 1 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

10.7%
December 31, 2026 · Trade →

24h move

-0.1
pts · 7d -0.9

Volume

$563K
24h $0 · liquidity $2K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

CongressTrumpSenatePoliticsTrump Presidency

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
December 31, 202610.7% -0.1-0.9$8K13.7¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%01-0306-0511-06
December 31, 2026

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying December 31, 2026 at 11% risks 11¢ to win 89¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, December 31, 2026 is the favorite at 10.7%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$563K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $2K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of VictoryNext Senate Majority Leader?How many government shutdowns by December 31, 2027?Speaker of the House after the midterms?Trump impeached and removed before 2028?Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?All live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.