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Home / Markets / Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child?
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Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 2.6% (+0.1 pts in 24h). $10K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

2.6%
No 97.4% · Trade →

24h move

+0.1
pts · 7d -0.6

Volume

$10K
24h $0 · liquidity $706

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

Elon MuskCelebritiesCulture

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes2.6% +0.1-0.6$10K2.3¢
No97.4% -0.1+0.6$10K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%01-1506-1111-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

On January 12, Elon Musk announced he would be filing for full custody of the child he shares with Ashley St. Clair. (see: https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded sole legal custody, or primary residential/physical custody of his son Romulus in the form of a final order by any U.S. court by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary custody orders or interim arrangements will not qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution unless they become final orders by the stated market deadline. This market will resolve immediately to "No" if all relevant court proceedings permanently cease, or are dropped by either party. This market will resolve based on announcements from Elon Musk, Ashley St. Clair, their official legal or social media representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 3% risks 3¢ to win 97¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.6% and No at 97.4%, on $10K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$10K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $706 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.