Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?: result and scorecard
Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.2%; a week before, 95.3%. $397K traded in total.
Result
Price 1 day before
Price 7 days before
Volume
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Yes | WON |
| No | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Scorecard
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows the second greatest increase of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly which is the second greatest of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?" resolve?
- It resolved Yes around December 31, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.2% one day before close, 95.3% one week before and 88.3% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $397K across 1 outcome.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.