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Resolved market scorecard

Who will be the next Pope?: result and scorecard

Resolved Robert Francis Prevost. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 1.9%; a week before, 1.1%. $30.1M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Robert Francis Prevost
resolved May 8, 2025

Price 1 day before

1.9%
Market was confident and wrong

Price 7 days before

1.1%
30 days before: –

Volume

$30.1M
29 outcomes

Global ElectionsPoliticsWorld ElectionsCatholocismNew Pope

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Robert Francis PrevostWON$1.4M
Pietro ParolinLOST$2.6M
Luis Antonio TagleLOST$2.3M
No new Pope in 2025LOST$2.3M
Peter TurksonLOST$1.8M
Robert SarahLOST$1.6M
Wim EijkLOST$1.6M
Pierbattista PizzaballaLOST$1.5M
Matteo ZuppiLOST$1.4M
Péter ErdőLOST$1.3M
Francis ArinzeLOST$1.3M
Angelo ScolaLOST$1.2M
Raymond BurkeLOST$1.1M
Jean-Marc AvelineLOST$1.1M
Fridolin Ambongo BesunguLOST$942K
Mario GrechLOST$924K
Jose Tolentino de MendoncaLOST$908K
Baldassare ReinaLOST$875K
Malcolm RanjithLOST$799K
Mark OuelletLOST$794K
Charles Maung BoLOST$777K
Anders ArboreliusLOST$677K
Fernando FiloniLOST$400K
Jean-Claude HollerichLOST$342K
Kurt KochLOST$251K
OtherLOST$216K
Person MLOST$0
Person NLOST$0
Person OLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%02-2504-0205-08
Robert Francis PrevostPietro ParolinLuis Antonio TagleNo new Pope in 2025
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 2% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the name of the next person elected to be the bishop of Rome after Pope Francis. If no new pope is elected by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No new Pope in 2025". If a person is elected to be the next bishop of Rome but declines the position, it will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The market associated with a named person will not resolve to "Yes" or "No" until the next bishop of Rome is elected and accepts the Papacy. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Vatican, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Who will be the next Pope?" resolve?
It resolved Robert Francis Prevost around December 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 1.9% one day before close, 1.1% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$30.1M across 29 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.