Which bills will become law in 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Export-control chip security at 42.5%, ahead of AI-chip export licensing at 16.5%. $203K traded across 14 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Export-control chip security | 42.5% | +0.5 |
| AI-chip export licensing | 16.5% | -2.5 |
| Data center utility cost protection | 14.5% | -7.5 |
| NO FAKES Act | 11.0% | +0.5 |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization | 9.0% | -1.0 |
| $2.50 Coin | 8.5% | +0.5 |
| Critical-minerals stockpile | 8.0% | 0.0 |
| Credit-card routing competition | 7.6% | -0.4 |
| Film/TV production expensing | 6.6% | +0.5 |
| DEFIANCE Act | 5.0% | -0.3 |
| Smithsonian Women’s History Museum | 4.9% | +1.1 |
| SHOWER Act | 4.6% | 0.0 |
| Trump Airport | 3.6% | -0.3 |
| SELF DRIVE Act | 3.3% | -0.5 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if X is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that would revise federal housing programs to increase housing supply and affordability by expanding federal financing and grant authority for affordable housing and streamlining federal requirements that delay housing development is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 6644 (119th) — Housing for the 21st Century Act. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which bills will become law in 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Export-control chip security is the favorite at 42.5%, followed by AI-chip export licensing at 16.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $203K in total and $1K in the last 24 hours, with about $67K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.