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Resolved market scorecard

US strikes Iran by...?: result and scorecard

Resolved February 28. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 6.5%; a week before, 19.5%. $529.0M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:12 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

February 28
resolved February 28, 2026

Price 1 day before

6.5%
Market was confident and wrong

Price 7 days before

19.5%
30 days before: 48.5%

Volume

$529.0M
65 outcomes

Parent For DerivativeHFCIranPoliticsMiddle East

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
February 28WON$89.7M
March 31WON$22.2M
June 30WON$9.2M
March 1WON$8.1M
March 15WON$6.6M
March 2WON$3.8M
March 7WON$2.5M
March 3WON$1.9M
December 31WON$1.7M
March 5WON$1.6M
March 4WON$1.4M
March 6WON$1.0M
March 8WON$539K
March 9WON$380K
March 14WON$358K
March 13WON$283K
March 10WON$270K
March 12WON$198K
March 11WON$190K
March 14OPEN$0
January 31LOST$41.8M
February 27LOST$25.1M
February 20LOST$18.8M
February 9LOST$17.6M
February 24LOST$16.9M
February 13LOST$15.1M
February 26LOST$14.5M
February 23LOST$14.0M
January 14LOST$13.6M
February 22LOST$12.6M
January 23LOST$12.3M
February 21LOST$12.3M
February 25LOST$10.5M
February 10LOST$10.5M
February 6LOST$9.8M
February 19LOST$8.8M
January 16LOST$8.5M
January 15LOST$8.0M
February 18LOST$7.4M
January 26LOST$6.9M
February 1LOST$6.6M
February 17LOST$5.6M
January 18LOST$5.5M
February 16LOST$4.9M
February 15LOST$4.5M
February 11LOST$4.5M
February 5LOST$4.5M
February 2LOST$4.2M
February 12LOST$4.2M
February 14LOST$4.1M
February 4LOST$3.8M
January 17LOST$3.8M
February 8LOST$3.8M
February 3LOST$3.8M
February 7LOST$3.6M
January 30LOST$3.5M
January 13LOST$3.3M
January 29LOST$3.1M
January 11LOST$3.0M
January 24LOST$2.9M
January 25LOST$2.7M
January 27LOST$2.5M
January 28LOST$2.0M
January 12LOST$1.7M
December 31LOST$19K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%12-2301-2502-28
February 28March 31June 30March 1
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 7% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "US strikes Iran by...?" resolve?
It resolved February 28 around June 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 6.5% one day before close, 19.5% one week before and 48.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$529.0M across 65 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.