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Home / Markets / U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
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U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 3.5% (-3.0 pts in 24h). $187K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

3.5%
No 96.5% · Trade →

24h move

-3.0
pts · 7d -4.0

Volume

$187K
24h $68 · liquidity $13K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

GazaIsraelForeign PolicyGeopoliticsPolitics

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes3.5% -3.0-4.0$187K1.0¢
No96.5% +3.0+4.0$187K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%11-0605-0711-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify. High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 4% risks 4¢ to win 97¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 3.5% and No at 96.5%, on $187K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$187K in total and $68 in the last 24 hours, with about $13K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.