What are the odds that Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 3.2% and No at 96.8%, on $93K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$93K in total and $52 in the last 24 hours, with about $17K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

Live market data

Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 3.2% (-0.4 pts in 24h). $93K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

3.2%

No 96.8% · Trade →

24h move

-0.4

pts · 7d -2.8

Volume

$93K

24h $52 · liquidity $17K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Israel Gaza Geopolitics Middle East World

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	3.2%	-0.4	-2.8	$93K	0.4¢
No	96.8%	+0.4	+2.8	$93K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 3% risks 3¢ to win 97¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 3.2% and No at 96.8%, on $93K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $93K in total and $52 in the last 24 hours, with about $17K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.