Dem sweep & Gaza ceasefire Phase II by end of 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether Israel and Hamas reach an agreement on the second phase of their ceasefire by the end of 2027. Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers. Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers. Each option then names the result of the second component ("Phase II deal" or "No Phase II"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No". Gaza ceasefire Phase II: On October 8, 2025, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This component is "Phase II deal" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it is "No Phase II". If the agreement is officially reached by the deadline, it qualifies regardless of if or when the agreement goes into effect. A “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm. An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify. This component will be determined based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify. House