What are the odds that Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 12.5% and No at 87.5%, on $35K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 2, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$35K in total and $524 in the last 24 hours, with about $784 of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?

Live market data

Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 12.5% (-9.0 pts in 24h). $35K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

12.5%

No 87.5% · Trade →

24h move

-9.0

pts · 7d -3.0

Volume

$35K

24h $524 · liquidity $784

Closes

January 2, 2027

57 days left

SCOTUS Courts Politics 2026 Predictions

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	12.5%	-9.0	-3.0	$35K	11.0¢
No	87.5%	+9.0	+3.0	$35K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 13% risks 13¢ to win 88¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 12.5% and No at 87.5%, on $35K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 2, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $35K in total and $524 in the last 24 hours, with about $784 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?Supreme Court sides with Apple in Epic Games appeal?Supreme Court sides with Catholic preschools in Colorado funding case?SCOTUS accepts Mahmoud Khalil case by...?Supreme Court sides with Suncor and Exxon in Boulder climate case?Supreme Court revives Arizona's proof-of-citizenship voting rules?All live markets Markets resolving this week Prediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.