Supreme Court revives Arizona's proof-of-citizenship voting rules?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota (No. 25-1017), issues a decision on the merits that reverses or vacates, in whole or in part, the Ninth Circuit’s judgment holding provisions of Arizona’s 2022 voter-citizenship laws (the documentary proof-of-citizenship requirements and the related pre-election removal rules for suspected noncitizens) unenforceable, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only a decision on the merits of this case (a written opinion, summary disposition, or per curiam opinion) will qualify. Emergency orders, stays, and other interim orders will not qualify. A decision that vacates the Ninth Circuit’s judgment and remands for further proceedings will resolve this market to “Yes”. A decision that affirms the Ninth Circuit’s judgment in full will resolve this market to “No”. If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed for mootness, withdrawn or settled, or otherwise concluded without a decision on the merits, or no qualifying decision has been issued by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”, regardless of whether the case remains pending or of the status of any lower-court ruling. This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.