SCOTUS accepts Mahmoud Khalil case by...?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari on Mahmoud Khalil's petition seeking review of the US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit's January 15, 2026 decision in his habeas case (captioned Khalil v. Trump in the lower courts), by the date specified in the market title, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The petition will qualify regardless of how the case is captioned or numbered at the Supreme Court. A grant limited to some of the questions presented will count, as will a grant of a petition consolidated with Khalil's petition, provided it includes review of the Third Circuit's decision in his case. A grant of certiorari in any other case, including a case raising similar legal questions, will not qualify. Granting certiorari means an order granting a petition for a writ of certiorari, including certiorari before judgment. An order that grants certiorari, vacates the lower court's judgment, and remands without further review (a GVR order) will not qualify. Denials of certiorari, relisting of a petition, and rulings on emergency applications or stays will not qualify. A qualifying grant will resolve this market to "Yes" even if the case is later dismissed, settled, or otherwise removed from the Court's docket. The grant must be confirmed by the Supreme Court of the United States or a consensus of credible reporting by the date specified in the market title, 11:59 PM ET. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided by that date to qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States (https://www.supremecourt.gov), including its orders lists and case dockets; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.