Supreme Court sides with Catholic preschools in Colorado funding case?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy (No. 25-581), issues a decision on the merits that reverses or vacates, in whole or in part, the Tenth Circuit’s judgment against the petitioner Catholic preschools in their challenge to their exclusion from Colorado’s universal preschool program, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only a decision on the merits of this case (a written opinion, summary disposition, or per curiam opinion) will qualify. Emergency orders, stays, and other interim orders will not qualify. A decision that vacates the Tenth Circuit’s judgment and remands for further proceedings will resolve this market to “Yes”. A decision that affirms the Tenth Circuit’s judgment in full will resolve this market to “No”. If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed for mootness, withdrawn or settled, or otherwise concluded without a decision on the merits, or no qualifying decision has been issued by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”, regardless of whether the case remains pending. This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.