Get the brief
LIVE Hyperliquid whale tracker: the largest open positions and what they are doing, updated every few minutes →
Home / Markets / Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?
Live market data

Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is June 30, 2027 at 15.5%, ahead of December 31, 2026 at 9.0%. $22K traded across 2 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

15.5%
June 30, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

-8.5
pts · 7d -0.5

Volume

$22K
24h $5K · liquidity $17K

Closes

July 1, 2027
237 days left

CourtsSCOTUSPoliticsSupreme Court

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
June 30, 202715.5% -8.5-0.5$13K3.0¢
December 31, 20269.0% -6.0+1.5$9K2.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%07-0209-0311-06
June 30, 2027December 31, 2026

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying June 30, 2027 at 16% risks 16¢ to win 85¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, June 30, 2027 is the favorite at 15.5%, followed by December 31, 2026 at 9.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$22K in total and $5K in the last 24 hours, with about $17K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by...?Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by...?Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?Maduro Prison Time?SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...? Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?Supreme Court sides with Apple in Epic Games appeal?All live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.