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Home / Markets / Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee
Resolved market scorecard

Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee: result and scorecard

Resolved Raphael Glucksmann. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 84.0%; a week before, 87.5%. $103K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Raphael Glucksmann
resolved October 12, 2026

Price 1 day before

84.0%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

87.5%
30 days before: 67.0%

Volume

$103K
49 outcomes

FrancePoliticsElectionssocialist partyGlobal Elections

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Raphael GlucksmannWON$45K
Boris VallaudLOST$16K
Olivier FaureLOST$15K
Segolene RoyalLOST$9K
Francois HollandeLOST$7K
Philippe BrunLOST$4K
Jérôme GuedjLOST$3K
Karim BouamraneLOST$2K
Carole DelgaLOST$2K
Bernard CazeneuveLOST$1K
Person DLOST$0
Person ELOST$0
Person FLOST$0
Person GLOST$0
Person HLOST$0
Person ILOST$0
Person JLOST$0
Person KLOST$0
Person LLOST$0
Person MLOST$0
Person NLOST$0
Person OLOST$0
Person PLOST$0
Person QLOST$0
Person RLOST$0
Person SLOST$0
Person TLOST$0
Person ULOST$0
Person VLOST$0
Person WLOST$0
Person XLOST$0
Person YLOST$0
Person ZLOST$0
Person AALOST$0
Person ABLOST$0
Person ACLOST$0
Person ADLOST$0
Person AELOST$0
Person AFLOST$0
Person AGLOST$0
Person AHLOST$0
Person AILOST$0
Person AJLOST$0
Person AKLOST$0
Person ALLOST$0
Person AMLOST$0
Person ANLOST$0
Person AOLOST$0
OtherLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%07-1408-2810-12
Raphael GlucksmannBoris VallaudOlivier FaureSegolene Royal
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 84% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee" resolve?
It resolved Raphael Glucksmann around October 10, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 84.0% one day before close, 87.5% one week before and 67.0% one month before.
How much was traded?
$103K across 49 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.