Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election Winner: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Lee Fairclough at 62.0%, ahead of Person A at 50.0%. $19K traded across 19 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
CanadaOntarioPoliticsElectionsMain Election
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Lee Fairclough | 62.0% | +1.5 |
| Person A | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person B | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person C | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person D | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person E | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person F | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person G | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person H | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person I | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person J | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person K | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person L | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person M | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Other | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Navdeep Bains | 38.0% | -0.5 |
| Stephanie Bowman | 2.3% | -2.1 |
| Dylan Marando | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Eric Lombardi | 0.1% | -0.2 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
The 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election is currently scheduled to conclude on November 21, 2026, with voting held from November 9 to November 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ontario Liberal Party.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election Winner"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Lee Fairclough is the favorite at 62.0%, followed by Person A at 50.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 10, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $19K in total and $224 in the last 24 hours, with about $56K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.