Laurier—Sainte-Marie By-Election Winner: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Guy Cormier at 93.5%, ahead of Person A at 50.0%. $3K traded across 30 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
CanadaPoliticsElectionsby electionMain Election
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Guy Cormier | 93.5% | +18.0 |
| Person A | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person B | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person C | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person D | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person E | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person F | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person G | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person H | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person I | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person J | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person K | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person L | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person M | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person N | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person O | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person P | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person Q | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person R | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person S | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person T | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person U | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person V | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person W | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person X | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Person Y | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Other | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Nimâ Machouf | 3.8% | -3.3 |
| Zumretay Arkin | 3.3% | -16.7 |
| Mathieu Fournier | 3.3% | -2.3 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Laurier—Sainte-Marie is currently scheduled to be held on December 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Laurier—Sainte-Marie by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Laurier—Sainte-Marie By-Election Winner"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Guy Cormier is the favorite at 93.5%, followed by Person A at 50.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 7, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $3K in total and $1K in the last 24 hours, with about $16K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.