Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Messias Bolsonaro is lawfully released from all custodial measures in Brazilian criminal proceedings between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Custodial measures include imprisonment, preventive or pretrial detention, house arrest in any form, closed, semi-open, or open prison regimes, and any other measure in a Brazilian criminal proceeding requiring confinement in a prison, residence, or other designated place, except for the residence or curfew conditions permitted below. The release must be legally authorized and actually implemented by the deadline, ending all custodial measures. For house arrest, this means the measure has ceased to apply and he is no longer held under it or any other custodial measure. What qualifies: - Release through sentence extinction, annulment, or completion; a pardon, commutation, or amnesty; or a judicial decision, including habeas corpus, provisional release, or suspension of sentence execution. His sentence or conviction need not have ended. - Conditional release or parole (livramento condicional), including electronic monitoring, residence, or curfew conditions, provided he is no longer under house arrest or serving a sentence under a closed, semi-open, or open prison regime. What does not qualify: - Humanitarian house arrest (prisão domiciliar humanitária), including continuation, extension, or modification leaving any custodial measure in place, with or without an ankle monitor. Removing the monitor while custody continues does not qualify. - Continuous confinement at a specified address, except for specifically authorized outings, even if described as a release condition. - Announcements, signed acts, enacted laws, or release orders that are blocked, suspended, or otherwise unimplemented, including orders stayed or overturned before release. Issuance or publication alone is insufficient. - Custody transfers, temporary outings for medical treatment, court appearances, voting, or similar purposes, or escape, unauthorized absence, or noncompliance with a custodial order. - Release in one case while custody continues in another Brazilian criminal proceeding. What does not affect qualification: - Non-custodial restrictions, including passport surrender, social-media bans, reporting requirements, or ineligibility to hold public office. - Electronic monitoring alone, residence at a specified address,