Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Messias Bolsonaro receives a pardon (indulto or graça), commutation, or reprieve granted by the President of Brazil between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying grant of clemency means an act signed by the President of Brazil, or by whoever is lawfully exercising the office, that pardons, commutes, reduces, or suspends the execution of a sentence that had already been imposed on Jair Bolsonaro in a Brazilian criminal proceeding at the time the act was signed, and that has been published in the Diário Oficial da União between market creation and the deadline. Both signature and publication must occur within this period. A reprieve means a temporary suspension of the execution of an imposed sentence through presidential clemency. Full or partial relief from a custodial sentence or criminal fine will qualify; actual release from custody is not required. An anticipatory act of clemency covering conduct for which no sentence has been imposed will not qualify. A clemency act that is suspended, annulled, or declared unconstitutional will still qualify, provided it otherwise satisfies these rules. Implementation, entry into effect, and continued legal validity are not required, including where the act is blocked before publication or implementation. An amnesty law passed by the National Congress will not qualify. Judicial decisions, including appeals, habeas corpus rulings, sentence reviews, changes to his prison regime, and changes to the conditions of his house arrest, will not independently qualify. However, a judicial decision may establish that a presidential collective clemency decree applies to him as provided below. A collective pardon (indulto coletivo) or collective commutation decree will qualify only if Jair Bolsonaro is named in the decree as a beneficiary of qualifying relief, or if the court competent to execute the relevant sentence, including the Supremo Tribunal Federal, issues an operative decision applying qualifying relief under that decree to him by the deadline. An operative order by an individual judge or justice will suffice; a full-court ruling is not required. The decree itself must also satisfy the signature and publication requirements above. Apparent eligibility under the decree's criteria, without such naming or decision, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be t