Resolved market scorecard
How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?: result and scorecard
Resolved 475k+. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 55.6%; a week before, 49.3%. $507K traded in total.
Result
475k+
resolved July 2, 2026
Price 1 day before
55.6%
Market was a coin flip
Price 7 days before
49.3%
30 days before: 23.2%
Volume
$507K
9 outcomes
TeslaBusinessBig TechTechElon Musk
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| 475k+ | WON |
| 400k–425k | LOST |
| 450k–475k | LOST |
| 425k–450k | LOST |
| 375k–400k | LOST |
| 350k–375k | LOST |
| <300k | LOST |
| 300k–325k | LOST |
| 325k–350k | LOST |
Price history to resolution
475k+400k–425k450k–475k425k–450k
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 56% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?" resolve?
- It resolved 475k+ around June 30, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 55.6% one day before close, 49.3% one week before and 23.2% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $507K across 9 outcomes.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.