Will any state ban the flying Tesla Roadster from public roads by December 31, 2028?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

On October 15, 2026, Tesla demonstrated a version of its new Roadster briefly becoming airborne using cold-gas thrusters. (see: https://fortune.com/2026/10/17/tesla-flying-roadster-spacex-thrusters-2028-production-price/) This market will resolve to "Yes" if any U.S. state takes a qualifying action prohibiting the flight-capable Tesla Roadster from being driven or operated on public roads within that state, as described below, between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The flight-capable Tesla Roadster refers to any model, trim, or configuration of the Tesla Roadster capable of becoming airborne under its own power, including the Rocket trim. Trims equipped with thrusters that cannot make the vehicle airborne will not be considered flight-capable. A qualifying action may be specific to the Tesla Roadster or may apply to flight-capable vehicles generally, so long as the flight-capable Tesla Roadster falls within its scope. A formal decision by a state to refuse to register or title the flight-capable Tesla Roadster for road use will qualify; the mere absence of registration, including where Tesla does not seek road approval, will not. A qualifying action need not be permanent; a temporary prohibition or pause will qualify. Laws or regulations in effect before market creation will not qualify, although a new qualifying action taken under them (e.g., a formal registration denial) will. Measures that impose conditions on road use — including licensing, inspection, or equipment requirements — will not qualify. A prohibition on flying the vehicle that still permits it to be driven on public roads will not qualify. Only measures that prohibit, suspend, or pause the flight-capable Tesla Roadster being driven or operated on public roads will qualify. The action must come from a state. An action taken by a city, county, or other political subdivision will not qualify. Qualifying actions must be taken in accordance with the applicable state's constitutional and legal procedures, and may come via enacted legislation, executive order, court order applying statewide, or a binding directive, permit, or authorization issued by a state official or agency with statewide authority. Legislation that does not become law under the applicable state process, including vetoed bills that do not take effect, does not qualify. Statements of intent or support by state officials that are not acc