Tesla Roadster delivered by...?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Tesla has delivered at least one Roadster to a qualifying customer by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Roadster" refers to the next-generation Tesla Roadster unveiled on November 16, 2017, in any trim or edition, including the Founders Series, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the Roadster. The original Tesla Roadster produced from 2008 to 2012 will not qualify. A delivery means the physical handover of a production vehicle to a qualifying customer, in any region. A qualifying customer must be a member of the general public, including a reservation holder, who has purchased the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Deliveries to Tesla or SpaceX employees, executives, directors, or their family members, to subsidiaries or internal entities, or for promotional, testing, demonstration, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify. A single handover to a recipient selected by Tesla outside its public order or reservation process (for example a celebrity delivery ahead of deliveries to reservation holders) will not qualify. Unveilings, demonstrations, test rides, prototype displays, announced delivery dates, and production announcements will not qualify on their own; a completed delivery meeting the above criteria must occur within this market's timeframe. Confirmation of the delivery must occur within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.