Will any state legalize flying the Tesla Roadster by December 31, 2028?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

On October 15, 2026, Tesla demonstrated a version of its new Roadster briefly becoming airborne using cold-gas thrusters. (see: https://fortune.com/2026/10/17/tesla-flying-roadster-spacex-thrusters-2028-production-price/) This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. state takes a qualifying action authorizing the Tesla Roadster to fly on or over public roads within that state, as described below, between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, the “Tesla Roadster” refers to any model or trim of Tesla’s Roadster, including the Rocket trim. A qualifying action may be specific to the Tesla Roadster or may apply to flying cars or roadable aircraft generally, so long as the Tesla Roadster falls within its scope. A qualifying action must authorize the Tesla Roadster to become airborne under its own power, for any duration, on or over public roads within the state, including, but not limited to, over other traffic. Authorizations limited to private property, closed courses, designated test sites, or experimental, research, or exhibition purposes will not qualify. Authorizations that only permit flying cars or roadable aircraft to be driven on public roads, without authorizing airborne operation on or over public roads, will not qualify. Laws, regulations, or authorizations in effect before market creation will not qualify. A qualifying action will count regardless of whether federal approval (e.g., from the FAA) is also required or has been obtained. The action must come from a state. An action taken by a city, county, or other political subdivision will not qualify. Qualifying actions must be taken in accordance with the applicable state’s constitutional and legal procedures, and may come via enacted legislation, executive order, court order applying statewide, or a binding directive, permit, or authorization issued by a state official or agency with statewide authority. Legislation that does not become law under the applicable state process, including vetoed bills that do not take effect, does not qualify. Statements of intent or support by state officials that are not accompanied by a qualifying action will not qualify. Actions by federal agencies (e.g., the Federal Aviation Administration) will not alone qualify. A qualifying action taken within the market timeframe will resolve this market “Yes” regardless of whether it is later lifted, repealed, enjoined, or ove