Resolved market scorecard
How many SpaceX launches in April?: result and scorecard
Resolved 12. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 84.5%; a week before, 76.4%. $100K traded in total.
Result
12
resolved May 1, 2026
Price 1 day before
84.5%
Market leaned the right way
Price 7 days before
76.4%
30 days before: 5.9%
Volume
$100K
7 outcomes
SpaceSpaceXTechBig TechCulture
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| 12 | WON |
| 16 | LOST |
| 14 | LOST |
| 13 | LOST |
| ≤11 | LOST |
| 17 or more | LOST |
| 15 | LOST |
Price history to resolution
12161413
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 85% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "How many SpaceX launches in April?" resolve?
- It resolved 12 around April 30, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 84.5% one day before close, 76.4% one week before and 5.9% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $100K across 7 outcomes.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.