What are the odds that Natural Disaster in 2026?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 4.7% and No at 95.3%, on $254K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on March 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$254K in total and $29 in the last 24 hours, with about $1K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Natural Disaster in 2026?

Live market data

Natural Disaster in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Natural Disaster in 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 4.7% (+0.9 pts in 24h). $254K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

4.7%

No 95.3% · Trade →

24h move

+0.9

pts · 7d -22.8

Volume

$254K

24h $29 · liquidity $1K

Closes

March 1, 2027

115 days left

Parlays hurricane nasa astroid earthquake

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	4.7%	+0.9	-22.8	$254K	4.8¢
No	95.3%	-0.9	+22.8	$254K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 5% risks 5¢ to win 95¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Natural Disaster in 2026?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 4.7% and No at 95.3%, on $254K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on March 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $254K in total and $29 in the last 24 hours, with about $1K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.