French Presidential Election: Candidate with most signatures from elected officials?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. To appear on the ballot, candidates must be presented by at least 500 eligible elected officials (“parrainages”), whose presentations are validated and published by the French Constitutional Council. The deadline for submitting presentations is currently expected to be March 12, 2027, at 6:00 PM local time. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid presentations (parrainages) from elected officials for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election, according to the final tally published by the French Constitutional Council. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve to the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If no final tally of valid presentations is published by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.