Resolved market scorecard
France debt downgrade by December 31?: result and scorecard
Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 68.0%; a week before, 65.0%. $11K traded in total.
Result
Yes
resolved September 12, 2025
Price 1 day before
68.0%
Market leaned the right way
Price 7 days before
65.0%
30 days before: –
Volume
$11K
1 outcome
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Yes | WON |
| No | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 68% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between September 3, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "France debt downgrade by December 31?" resolve?
- It resolved Yes around December 31, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 68.0% one day before close, 65.0% one week before and – one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $11K across 1 outcome.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.