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Home / Markets / Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil by...?
Resolved market scorecard

Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil by...?: result and scorecard

Resolved November 30, 2026. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at –; a week before, –. $220K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

November 30, 2026
resolved October 28, 2026

Price 1 day before

–
Unknown

Price 7 days before

–
30 days before: –

Volume

$220K
3 outcomes

WorldBrazilPoliticsBolsonaro

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
November 30, 2026WON$135K
December 31, 2026WON$61K
March 31, 2027WON$23K

Price history to resolution

Not enough price history yet for a chart.
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at – the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil by...?" resolve?
It resolved November 30, 2026 around April 1, 2027.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at – one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$220K across 3 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.