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Home / Markets / Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE in 2025?
Resolved market scorecard

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE in 2025?: result and scorecard

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.8%; a week before, 32.5%. $7.3M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes
resolved February 21, 2025

Price 1 day before

99.8%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

32.5%
30 days before: 38.0%

Volume

$7.3M
1 outcome

Elon MuskPoliticsTrump PresidencyDOGE2025 Predictions

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesWON$7.3M
NoLOST$7.3M

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%01-2202-0602-21
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Elon Musk has resigned or will resign as head/co-head of the of the Department of Governmental Efficiency (DOGE), or otherwise ceases to be head of the of the Department of Governmental Efficiency (DOGE) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Musk's resignation or removal before the resolution date, made by DOGE, Elon Musk, or the Trump Administration will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source will be official information from DOGE, Elon Musk, or the Trump Administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE in 2025?" resolve?
It resolved Yes around December 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 32.5% one week before and 38.0% one month before.
How much was traded?
$7.3M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.