China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?: result and scorecard
Resolved 4.3-4.6%. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 75.5%; a week before, 77.0%. $92K traded in total.
Result
Price 1 day before
Price 7 days before
Volume
GDPChinaEconomyMacro IndicatorsRecurring
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| 4.3-4.6% | WON |
| 4.6-4.9% | LOST |
| 4.0-4.3% | LOST |
| 4.9-5.2% | LOST |
| 3.7-4.0% | LOST |
| 5.2-5.5% | LOST |
| <3.4% | LOST |
| 5.5%+ | LOST |
| 3.4-3.7% | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Scorecard
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Frequently asked questions
- How did "China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?" resolve?
- It resolved 4.3-4.6% around October 21, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 75.5% one day before close, 77.0% one week before and 57.5% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $92K across 9 outcomes.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.