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Home / Markets / China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
Resolved market scorecard

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?: result and scorecard

Resolved 4.3-4.6%. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 75.5%; a week before, 77.0%. $92K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

4.3-4.6%
resolved October 19, 2026

Price 1 day before

75.5%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

77.0%
30 days before: 57.5%

Volume

$92K
9 outcomes

GDPChinaEconomyMacro IndicatorsRecurring

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
4.3-4.6%WON$39K
4.6-4.9%LOST$20K
4.0-4.3%LOST$12K
4.9-5.2%LOST$6K
3.7-4.0%LOST$6K
5.2-5.5%LOST$3K
<3.4%LOST$2K
5.5%+LOST$2K
3.4-3.7%LOST$2K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%07-1709-0210-19
4.3-4.6%4.6-4.9%4.0-4.3%4.9-5.2%
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 76% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html

Frequently asked questions

How did "China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?" resolve?
It resolved 4.3-4.6% around October 21, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 75.5% one day before close, 77.0% one week before and 57.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$92K across 9 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.