US GDP growth in Q4 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 2.0% to 2.5% at 15.5%, ahead of ≥4.0% at 15.5%. $29K traded across 7 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
GDPEconomyRecurringEconomic PolicyMacro Indicators
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0% to 2.5% | 15.5% | -5.0 |
| ≥4.0% | 15.5% | +2.5 |
| 1.5% to 2.0% | 13.2% | -2.5 |
| 2.5% to 3.0% | 9.0% | -2.0 |
| <1.5% | 8.0% | 0.0 |
| 3.0% to 3.5% | 8.0% | -1.5 |
| 3.5% to 4.0% | 4.5% | -6.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled for January 28, 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "US GDP growth in Q4 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 2.0% to 2.5% is the favorite at 15.5%, followed by ≥4.0% at 15.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 29, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $29K in total and $587 in the last 24 hours, with about $9K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.