China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 4.6-4.9% at 52.0%, ahead of 4.3-4.6% at 45.0%. $27K traded across 9 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
GDPChinaEconomyRecurringMacro Indicators
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6-4.9% | 52.0% | -1.0 |
| 4.3-4.6% | 45.0% | +1.0 |
| 4.9-5.2% | 5.1% | +0.1 |
| 4.0-4.3% | 1.2% | -0.1 |
| 5.2-5.5% | 0.6% | -0.1 |
| <3.4% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 3.4-3.7% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 3.7-4.0% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 5.5%+ | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled for some time in January 2027. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 4.6-4.9% is the favorite at 52.0%, followed by 4.3-4.6% at 45.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on February 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $27K in total and $449 in the last 24 hours, with about $31K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.