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Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 8.0% (-5.0 pts in 24h). $124 has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

8.0%
No 92.0% · Trade →

24h move

-5.0
pts · 7d -5.1

Volume

$124
24h $0 · liquidity $274

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

CanadaPoliticsAmbassadorGeopoliticsUnited States

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes8.0% -5.0-5.1$12413.9¢
No92.0% +5.0+5.1$124–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-2111-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 8% risks 8¢ to win 92¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 8.0% and No at 92.0%, on $124 of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$124 in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $274 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.