Resolved market scorecard
Bird flu declared public health emergency before April?: result and scorecard
Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.8%; a week before, 99.0%. $67K traded in total.
Result
No
resolved April 1, 2025
Price 1 day before
99.8%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
99.0%
30 days before: 97.9%
Volume
$67K
1 outcome
ScienceBird FluPandemicsCulture
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Yes | LOST |
| No | WON |
Price history to resolution
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the WHO officially declares H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements made by the WHO (e.g. statements released on their official website, https://www.who.int/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Bird flu declared public health emergency before April?" resolve?
- It resolved No around March 31, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 99.0% one week before and 97.9% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $67K across 1 outcome.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.