Another commercial vessel struck in Black Sea by…?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on a commercial ship within the defined area between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Black Sea and the Kerch Strait, including ports and anchorages on the Black Sea coast. An incident occurring outside these waters will not qualify, including in the Sea of Azov, the Bosporus, or on rivers such as the Danube. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seizures or boarding of a ship will not be considered. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, naval drone strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damage caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (EET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.